DTF / Outcome measurementDTF home

Replay says what happened. Measurement says whether it worked.

DTF links a decision record to later operational outcomes and states the method, window, baseline and evidence limitations used to interpret the result.

01

Before and after is not automatically causal.

Seasonality, selection, concurrent changes and measurement differences can produce an apparent improvement even when the intervention had no effect.

DTF therefore distinguishes the observed outcome from a causal claim. Where the evidence permits, the outcome can be compared with an appropriate baseline or control using a declared, reproducible method.

02

A decision-specific measurement record.

Baseline

What came before

Define the reference population, period and exclusions.

Window

When the outcome is observed

Use decision-appropriate measurement windows.

Method

How comparison works

Retain the deterministic calculation and its version.

Confidence

What the evidence supports

Missing windows or weak controls reduce confidence rather than fabricate a result.

03

Leading outcomes and economic outcomes mature at different speeds.

An operational signal can appear within days or weeks while the full economic result takes months. DTF records each against its appropriate window instead of claiming final value early.

DTF / Next step

Bring one consequential decision.

Start with the evidence, policy, authority, action and outcome that should stay connected.

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